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Research Article | volume 2 Issue 1 (Jan-March, 2026) | Pages 1 - 18
An Empirical analysis of Rising Food Inflation using VAR approach
1
Department of Economics, School of Social Science, Central University of Rajasthan, Kishangarh, Ajmer (Dist), Rajasthan, 305817, India
Under a Creative Commons license
Open Access
Received
Jan. 15, 2026
Revised
Jan. 20, 2026
Accepted
Feb. 8, 2026
Published
Feb. 20, 2026
Abstract

The paper underscores an empirical investigation into the rising food inflation in India based on the Vector Autoregression (VAR) technique, for the period from 1992 to 2021. The paper identifies an important economic issue in India, whereby food price inflation has been recognized as a major concern, especially in the wake of the increase in average food inflation of above 80% relative to inflation in other non-food items in the period from 2006-2009. The investigation assumes its importance in the wake of the COVID-19 crisis, which initiated parallel forces, such as the contraction in economic activities following the imposition of lock downs, and as such, triggered food inflation in the economy. The paper uses secondary data collected from various publications, such as the Handbook of Statistics on India Economy and the publications of the Economic Survey of India in 2021, as well as databases like FAOSTAT and the International Monetary Fund. The investigation develops two VAR frameworks in uncovering the variables that influence food inflation in the economy.

Keywords
Food Inflation
India
VAR Model
Macroeconomic Determinants
COVID-19 Impact
Price Volatility
Economic Contraction.
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